Thinking in Bets by Annie Duke

Reviewed Date: May 2nd, 2023

We decide if a decision is good or bad based on its outcome. If it turned out to be a good outcome, we say it’s a good decision, and the same goes for the bad outcome. But this black-and-white thinking doesn’t develop our decision skills unless we base our decisions on process rather than the outcome.

Although it is unpleasant to hear, luck plays a major role in our lives. It can turn our lives upside down in a matter of moments. But when we are thinking about the future, we see it as linear; we make a decision, and it will play out accordingly in reality. But that’s rarely true. In an uncertain future, you cannot guarantee anything.

We need to change this mindset, integrate randomness in our decision-making process, think of possible consequences and outcomes, and even if an outcome turned out to be good, we need to think about how much luck has played in the result. It’s hard, but if we are objective, we can make solid decisions.

Thinking in Bets is a refreshing read. I won’t say it’s entertaining for me since the author used a lot of poker references, which I don’t understand. But the book has touched on the uncertainty and random nature of our world that I like. It’s a solid read. I recommend this book to people who are interested in decision-making and thinking.