Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Taleb (2)

Reviewed Date: January 11th, 2022

Many of us believe that the world is deterministic. We think we know what would happen if we do a thing; we believe that hard work is essential to be a millionaire. We call people who say there should be luck in our lives to become successful. We say these people don’t take responsibility and utter lame excuses like luck.

But the world is full of randomness, whether you agree or not. If you look at the past, the past will be deterministic because only one single observation took place. Tomorrow, several things can happen; you don’t know. After completion of the day, you will take away the single observation and use that to predict the next day.

Most self-help books promote the idea that success depends on one’s hard work. But the country you live in matters most. If a middle-class person reads a business book in Somalia about starting a multi-billion-dollar company, he/she should consider economic opportunities in the country too. Banks wouldn’t lend money in starting stages because they too know the probability of failure of an enterprise.

I am not saying one should not work hard and take responsibility for themselves. I am saying that there is an aspect of luck, and one shouldn’t see the future from a deterministic perspective.


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